4 | South African Journal of Economics 南非经济学杂志

院校资讯君

South African Journal of Economics
Volume 91 Issue 3
南非经济学杂志 第91卷第3期
本期目录
1.
Export capacity and capital stock augmentation through imports: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries
通过进口增加出口能力和资本存量：基于撒哈拉以南非洲国家的实证研究
2.
Is inflation uncertainty a self-fulfilling prophecy in South Africa?
南非的通胀不确定性是其自证预言吗？
3.
Macroeconomic challenges of scaling up aid to West African Economic and Monetary Union
增加对西非经济和货币联盟援助的宏观经济挑战
4.
Impact of capital regulation on interest rate pass-through in Sub-Saharan Africa
资本监管对非洲撒哈拉以南地区利率传递的影响
5.
Government social protection programme spending and household welfare in Lesotho
莱索托政府社会保护支出和家庭福利
6.
Public spending, credit market conditions and economic activity in South Africa
南非的公共支出、信贷市场状况和经济活动
部分文章摘要
01
Macroeconomic challenges of scaling up aid to West African Economic and Monetary Union
Abstract: The increase in Official Development Assistance for which the international community has mobilized should enable developing countries such as those of the West African Economic and Monetary Union to have the resources to achieve sustainable development goals and, more recently, to deal with the Coronavirus crisis. But this ‘Big Push’ of aid presents several macroeconomic challenges that this paper simulates using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The results showed that an increase in aid to West African Economic and Monetary Union countries translates into an increase in output and labor input. On the other hand, increased aid leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a widening of the budget deficit.

摘要：对于西非经济和货币联盟中的发展中国家而言，国际社会提供的额外发展援助本应使其既拥有实现可持续发展目标所必须的资源，亦具备应对新型冠状病毒危机的能力。然而，快速扩张的援助所引发的宏观经济挑战不容忽视。为此，本文使用动态随机一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model）模拟了前述挑战，研究结果表明：增加对西非经济和货币联盟成员国的援助意味着产出和劳动力投入的增加；另一方面，援助的增加也会导致实际汇率升值和预算赤字扩大。
02
Impact of capital regulation on interest rate pass-through in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract：Using monthly data from 2005 to 2019, we employ a dynamic heterogeneous cross-divally autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model to examine the impact of higher regulatory capital requirements on the interest rate pass-through (IRPT) to bank lending and deposit rates in 22 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Two key findings emerge from the investigation: (i) the average IRPT in SSA is incomplete in the long run, and (ii) stringent (higher) regulatory capital requirements reduce the pass-through of monetary policy to commercial bank lending and deposit rates. The findings suggest that although higher regulatory capital requirements are an effective macro-prudential tool for enhancing the stability of the banking sector, they could also have the unintended consequences of limiting economic expansion. This trade-off calls for a careful analysis and balance in the implementation of monetary and bank regulatory policies in the region.

摘要：本文选取了动态异构横断面自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）模型，研究对于22个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家（SSA）而言，更严格的资本监管要求对其银行存贷款利率传递效应（IRPT）的影响，所使用的是2005年至2019年间的月度数据，这其中存在两个关键现象：第一， SSA的平均IRPT在长期视角下是不完整的；第二，更严格的资本监管要求降低了货币政策对商业银行存贷款利率的传递效应。研究结果表明，尽管更严格的监管资本要求是一项能有效增强银行业稳定性的宏观审慎工具，但也可能产生限制经济增长的负面效应。为此，在特定地区实施货币和银行监管政策时需要进行仔细分析与利益权衡。
03
Government social protection programme spending and household welfare in Lesotho
Abstract: Lesotho has notably high levels of poverty and inequality despite a high level of government spending on social protection programmes. We assess the performance of this spending in reducing consumption poverty and inequality, applying benefit incidence and microsimulation methods to 2017/2018 household survey data. We investigate the distributional effects of actual spending as well as those of a hypothetical alternative in which the spending is targeted through a proxy means test (PMT) formula used by the government for some programmes. We find that government spending on social protection programmes in Lesotho substantially reduces poverty and inequality. For most programmes, the hypothetical alternative of targeting spending to poorer households through the government s PMT formula would have no better distributional effects than current programme spending. The exception is postsecondary education bursaries, which are costly and regressive. Retaining bursaries only for poorer students, and reallocating the outlay this saves to a transfer targeted to poorer households through the government s PMT formula, could reduce poverty and inequality significantly.

摘要：尽管莱索托政府在社会保护上花费了大量资金，但其社会的贫困和不平等程度仍然很高。为解释这一问题，我们将福利发生率和微观模拟方法应用于2017和2018年的家庭调查数据，评估了社会保护支出在减少消费贫困和不平等方面的表现。我们调查了实际支出的分配效应，并通过政府在某些计划中使用的代理经济状况调查（PMT）来确定支出目标的假设替代方案的分配效应。研究结果表明：莱索托政府在社会保护项目上的支出大大减少了贫困和不平等。对于大多数项目来说，通过政府的PMT公式将支出目标对准较贫困家庭的假设替代方案，不会比当前的项目支出产生更好的分配效果。唯一的例外是高等教育助学金，故而如果仅为贫困学生保留奖学金，并通过政府的PMT公式将节省下来的支出重新分配给针对贫困家庭的转移支付计划，就可以显著减少贫困和不平等。
整理 | 李淄君
排版、审核 | 寇韵楳、薛榆淞



北京大学税法研究中心
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