5 | Financial Review 财政评论

院校资讯君

Financial Review
Volume 154 Issue 4
财政评论 第154卷第4期
本期目录
1.
Methods for assessing fiscal sustainability in the IMF and EU
国际货币基金组织和欧盟关于财政可持续性的评估方法
2.
Assessment of Japan’s medium- to long-term sovereign risks―IMF’s SRDSF assessment and projections for age-related expenditures for Japan
关于日本中长期主权风险的评估——国际货币基金组织基于SRDSF方法对日本不同年龄群体相关支出的评估和预测
3.
Research on the sustainability of employment insurance systems (Unemployment benefits, Childcare leave benefits)
就业保险制度的可持续性（失业救济金、育儿假福利）
4.
Global safe asset imbalance and interest rates―Long-term projection in the U.S. and China
全球安全资产失衡与利率——对美国和中国的长期预测
5.
A framework for macroeconomic analysis focusing on net lending/borrowing across the government, private, and overseas sectors
关于政府、私营部门和海外部门净借贷的宏观经济分析框架

部分文章摘要
01
Assessment of Japan’s medium- to long-term sovereign risks―IMF’s SRDSF assessment and projections for age-related expenditures for Japan
Abstract: This paper explains the results of the debt projections and the assessments of sovereign risks for Japan following the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework （SRDSF） conducted by the International Monetary Fund （IMF）, which were published in March 2023. However, the assessment following the IMF’s SRDSF did not cover projections for age-related expenditures more than 10 years, which should have significant impacts on Japan’s public finances. Therefore, this paper also presents the results of projections for Japan’s healthcare and long-term care costs, as well as pension benefit costs until FY2060 prepared by referring to the methods adopted by the European Commission （EC）.

摘要：本文根据国际货币基金组织于2023年3月发布的主权风险和债务可持续性框架（SRDSF），对日本进行了债务预测和主权风险评估，并详细阐述了相关结果。然而，IMF 基于SRDSF所进行的评估没有包括对10年以上与年龄有关的支出预测，但这些支出可能对日本的公共财政产生重大影响。因此，本文还参照欧盟委员会（EC）所采用的方法，进一步预测了日本在医疗保健和长期护理等方面的成本，以及2060财年前的养老金福利成本。
02
Research on the sustainability of employment insurance systems (Unemployment benefits, Childcare leave benefits)
Abstract：With regard to employment insurance systems (unemployment benefits, childcare leave benefits), we analyzed the sustainability of employment insurance finances by building an estimation model based on available statistical data, published materials, and Japan’s employment insurance system, while taking reference from the approaches employed by the European Commission. Regarding unemployment benefits, the results of the analysis showed that reserved funds are not depleted in both the baseline and shock scenarios, and that employment insurance finance is sustainable under the assumption that the current system remains unchanged. Additionally, there is a correlation between equilibrium unemployment rate and insurance premium rate necessary to achieve balance of revenue and expenditure; in the model presented in this paper, a 1% rise in equilibrium unemployment rate corresponds to a 0.2% increase in insurance premium rate. In respect of childcare leave benefits, our analysis shows that reserved funds are not depleted in the baseline scenario under the assumption that the current system remains unchanged, however, changes in factors such as demographic changes (birth rates), household behavior (rate of women who continue to work after childbirth, rate of use of childcare leave), and employment policies (ratio of benefits received during childcare leave to wages (replacement rate)) have a corresponding impact on the amount of childcare leave benefits. As such, it is important to pay attention to the sustainability of employment insurance finances.

摘要：为充分研究就业保险制度中的失业救济金和育儿假福利，本研究基于现有统计数据、公开资料和日本就业保险制度构建了一个全新的评估模型，并参考欧盟委员会所采用的分析方法，全面分析了其财务可持续性。关于失业救济金的分析显示，储备资金在基线情景和冲击情景下都没有耗尽，这意味着能在不改变现行就业保险制度的情况下实现财务的可持续。同时，均衡失业率与实现收支平衡所需的保险费率之间存在相关性，而在本文所提出的模型中，每当均衡失业率上升1%，保险费率则会对应上升0.2%。关于育儿假福利的分析显示，虽然储备资金在假设现行制度不变的基线情景下不会耗尽，但应考虑人口变化（出生率）、家庭行为（生育后继续工作的妇女比例、育儿假使用率）和就业政策（育儿假期间获得的福利与工资的替代率）等因素的影响，这意味着需要特别关注就业保险在冲击情境下的财务可持续性。
03
Global safe asset imbalance and interest rates―Long-term projection in the U.S. and China
Abstract: This paper makes the long-term projection for the demand of global safe asset and investigates its impact on interest rates, using the two-country overlapping-generations model in the U.S. and China. The main findings are twofold: (i) if China s saving decreases due to the easing of its borrowing constraint by the financial development and the flattening of income distribution caused by the extension of retirement age, the current account imbalance between the U.S. and China would shrink; (ii) it would result in the exert upward pressure on real world interest rates.
摘要：本文采用中美两国的世代交叠模型，对全球范围内的安全资产需求进行了长期预测，并考察了其对利率的影响。本研究主要有以下两个发现：第一，如果中国的收入分配因金融发展和退休年龄延长呈现出扁平化趋势，进而导致借款约束放松和居民储蓄减少，那么中美之间的经常账户失衡就将会因此而缩小；第二，前述变化将对实际利率施加上行压力。
整理 | 薛榆淞
排版 | 刘逸颖
审核 | 寇韵楳、薛榆淞



北京大学税法研究中心
Peking University
Center for Tax Law


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